Thursday, May 31, 2012

The future of the Bankia bailout

The ECB loudly proclaimed (and quickly retracted) that Rajoy’s bank bailout scheme wouldn’t fly because it would “violate the spirit” of central bank financing government spending.

That’s a real step forward, since obviously if it only violates the spirit of the law, it doesn’t violate the letter of the law. Which means that is exactly what’s going to happen. (Ireland basically did exactly the same thing when it rescued its banks, adding even the additional contortion that it somehow managed to borrow the money without increasing their deficit.)

Given that all the other alternatives require treaty changes or treaty breaking, what else is really going to happen?

No comments: