How optimistic are the Bank of Spain economic forecasts?

So the bank of Spain is predicting that all will be well in 2014. Should we believe them?

The easiest way to tell would be to compare the 2010 predictions of what 2011 and 2012 would be like to the actual result.

• The supposedly amazing export performance of Spain in 2012 is actually less than was predicted in 2010.
• Government cutbacks have been higher than predicted
• Construction and investment have fallen by much more than expected
• The surge in unemployment was completely missed
• Productivity grew and labor costs dropped much more than expected

	2011 projection	2011 actual	diff	2012 projection	2012 actual	diff
GDP	0.8	0.4	(0.4)	1.5	(1.4)	(2.9)
Private consumption	0.7	(1.0)	(1.7)	1.0	(2.1)	(3.1)
Government consumption	(1.1)	(0.5)	0.6	(0.9)	(3.7)	(2.8)
Gross fixed capital formation	(3.1)	(5.3)	(2.2)	3.6	(9.1)	(12.7)
Investment in capital goods	2.9	2.4	(0.5)	6.7	(6.6)	(13.3)
Investment in construction	(7.5)	(9.0)	(1.5)	1.3	(11.5)	(12.8)
Exports of goods and services	8.0	7.6	(0.4)	6.1	3.1	(3.0)
Imports of goods and services	2.7	(0.9)	(3.6)	4.9	(5.0)	(9.9)
National demand (contribution to growth)	(0.5)	(1.9)	(1.4)	1.2	(3.9)	(5.1)
Net external demand (contribution to growth)	1.3	2.3	1.0	0.0	2.5	2.5
Private consumption deflator	2.9	2.9	0.0	1.5	2.6	1.1
Unit labor costs	(0.3)	(1.4)	(1.1)	1.0	(3.4)	(4.4)
Compensation per employee	1.1	0.7	(0.4)	1.5	(0.3)	(1.8)
Apparent labor productivity	1.4	2.2	0.8	0.5	3.2	2.7
Employment (full-time equivalent)	(0.6)	(1.7)	(1.1)	1.0	(4.4)	(5.4)
Unemployment rate	20.7	21.6	0.9	20.4	25.0	4.6
Savings rate of households	11.2	11.0	(0.2)	11.4	8.4	(3.0)
National economy's net lending (% GDP)	(3.7)	(3.2)	0.5	(3.7)	(0.2)	3.5
General government net lending (% GDP)	(6.2)	(9.4)	(3.2)	(5.2)	(10.0)	(4.8)